Sweet Tea Logic (cont.): THE UNBELIEVABLY COMPLEX SECRET TO WINNING GAMES IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT REVEALED!!

What a weird day. In five of today’s eight second-round games, the higher seed saw their double digit second half leads shrink or vanish altogether:

2-seed Texas led 7-seed Miami (who I mistakenly neglected [redundant?] to mention in my discussion of the ACC in yesterday’s post) by as much as 17 and by 16 with only 4:15 to play but found themselves ahead by only a deuce with 5 seconds remaining.

2-seed Tennessee led 7-seed Butler led by as much as 13 in the first and 10 in the second half. In fact, the Volunteers did not trail once through all of regulation. Yet, the feisty Bulldogs (who play in the second coolest arena in all of college basketball behind only the Palestra) managed to force the game into overtime.

2-seed Georgetown (noticing a trend here?) led 10-seed Davidson by 17 early in the second half yet found themselves trailing the Wildcats by 5 with 2:40 to play.

12-seed Western Kentucky led 13-seed San Diego by 15 points with a little over 15 minutes to play yet found themselves trailing by a point less than 10 minutes later.

1-seed Memphis’s lead over 9-seed Mississippi State ballooned to as much as 13 early in the second half before shrinking to as little as two points and the Bulldogs had a shot to tie as time expired.

I didn’t get to catch any of the Hilltoppers’ win earlier today so I can’t speak to how the Toreros managed to close the deficit so quickly. However, in the other games there was one ingredient that helped cook up some tense endings. And while I’m sure the “experts” on ESPN will spend hours “analyzing” the reasons behind each comeback, the answer is really very obvious:

MISSED FREE THROWS.

Think I’m oversimplifying things? Check out the stats:

Free Throw Percentage:
Georgetown 47.1%
Davidson 80.0%
Texas 54.5%
Miami 86.4%
Memphis 46.9%
Miss. State 70.0%
Butler (second half) 75%

It’s kind of amazing that three of the top 10 teams in the country, this season, could not even manage to make 55% of their free throws today. Georgetown threw away nine points because of missed free throws and ultimately lost by four. The Hoyas shot over 63% from the field yet somehow were unable to make half of their free throws.

Texas missed 7 of 12 from the line in the final 93 seconds (including the front end of a one-and-one). Up two in the final seconds and needing only to hit both free throws to seal the game for his Longhorns, D.J. Augustin completely missed the apparatus, airballing his first shot and giving the Hurricanes the opportunity to set up a final shot (which never materialized as the U. could not complete the inbound pass).

Memphis had a five point lead and the ball with only 16 seconds remaining. Game over? Should have been. But the Tigers missed 4 of their last 6 free throws which allowed Mississippi State to attempt a desperation game-tying shot that clanked precariously off the rim.

And while Tennessee shot an acceptable 70% from the line in the second half of their victory over Butler, Tyler Smith’s missed free throw with a little over a minute to play and his Volunteers up 3 kept Butler within one possession of the lead. Tennessee’s shooters went ice cold going 0-for-8 from behind the arc in the second half. It was that, more than the free throws, that enabled the Bulldogs to tie the game up, but a couple of missed free throws didn’t hurt.

By the way, did anyone have a worse couple of minutes than Butler PG Mike Green did at the end of the game today? Green shot 1 for 6 from the field and hit only 2 of his 4 free throws after subbing back into the game with 5:04 remaining in the second half. Green missed a couple of layups in overtime in addition to turning the ball over with the game tied and only a little over a minute remaining (left).

So folks, I know it sounds simple and it’s not as sexy as discussing ball-screens, Texas’ 2-3 zone, or Bruce Pearl’s attention whoring, but if you want to avoid being upset by a pesky mid-major, MAKE YOUR FREE THROWS!

Or, in multimedia format:

That is all.

BONUS FUN FACT: If you type “missed free throw” into google images, the 10th result was taken by yours truly and features esteemed NYT columnist Steve Danley who played in three NCAA tournaments.